The main objective of the numerical modelling to develop and compare deterministic and probabilistic modelling frameworks that estimate likely flood extents. Both modelling approaches will be executed at a field site, and the results contrasted to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each technique. Some activities will include: deterministic modelling of flood extent using process-based tools such as MIKE21, including the calibration and validation of these models; the development of a probabilistic technique, most likely building on previous work by the lead investigator in which a Monte Carlo simulation is used to yield possible outcomes of a flooding event given a range of input parameters; the subsequent comparison of the outputs and methods of each modelling technique; and finally, summarizing all the output.
